■ Worst ever slump in the volume of offset ink shipped and sold
Since experiencing another downturn in the latter half of 2001, the business climate in the printing industry has not shown any positive signs. This is the third slump since the collapse of the bubble economy and differs from the previous ones in terms of the volume of printing work. The volume of offset ink shipped and sold had already experienced a year-on-year decline for 13 months from August 2001 through September 2002 except in May 2002. On a moving average basis, this market recorded a 2.5% decline.
If we look at the past two post-bubble slowdowns, offset ink grew rather than fell during the first slowdown. In the second downturn, all we saw was that the volume of offset ink shipped and sold posted a year-on-year decline for five consecutive months from April through August 1998, with a maximum drop of 1.0% on a 12-month moving average basis.
October 2002, however, showed a 2.5% increase over the year, followed by December's 0.9% growth year on year, indicating along with other indexes that the economy has hit bottom. December 2002 saw sales of the advertisement industry posting a 2.4% increase from the level a year ago for the first time in 17 months. According to JAGAT's fixed point observation, sales for small to medium-sized printing businesses marked a 3.0% sink in November 2002 from the same period a year ago, followed by some improvement: a 2.3% decline in December, a 1.4% decline in January 2003, and a 0.5% increase in February to record the first year-on-year climb in 17 months.
(Figure 1).
■ Largest ever decline in commercial printing
The most remarkable finding in the segment-by-segment status described in the fiscal 2002 mid-term financial statements of the listed printing firms is that all but the electronics sector, which showed year-on-year growth in sales, declined from levels one year earlier. Commercial printing experienced a significant fall of 7.9% from the previous year and publication printing a decline of 4.0%.
Another distinctive point is polarization in profitability. In sharp contrast to large companies, whose profitability is diminishing year after year, medium-sized firms with unique features have successfully achieved a high-level profit performance.
The operating earning rate of the leading three firms, which stood at levels of 5-7% until the mid-1990s, has been reducing each year since 1998. The rates of Kyodo Printing and Dai Nippon Printing sank to as low as 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively at interim closing for fiscal 2002. This reduction in profitability occurred in inverse proportion to the climb in the cost to sales ratio, closely reflecting lowering printing prices.
Meanwhile, TOKYO Lithmatic, Kosaido, Nissha Printing, Sunmesse, and Tosho Printing reported higher earnings and profits in their mid-term financial statements for fiscal 2002. Among these five, all but Tosho Printing achieved a high operating income margin of over 6%. Other companies that have a high operating profit on sales are Asia Securities Printing (19.2%), Takara Printing (17.9%), Hiraga (7.9%), Toppan Forms (7.6%), and Fukushima Printing (6.9%).
Asia Securities Printing and Takara Printing are companies that offer specialized solutions in knowledge-intensive fields to serve customers with disclosure needs. Toppan Forms and Fukushima Printing, specializing in form printing, are vigorous in the outsourcing business through the use of digital technology and in developing their original products. TOKYO Lithmatic has expanded business by carving out a niche with its strengths in digital data handling and short-run printing to serve professionals in neighboring industries. Nissha Printing has avoided competition with major companies and drastically shifted its market from commercial and book printing to industrial materials and electronics with a view toward overseas markets.
Financial statements, declared income data, and other performance statistics collected by the industry trade groups over the past few years show overall sluggishness in the industry, while a closer view reveals that medium-sized firms, like those described above, are making a good showing.