1. Exports and imports of printed matter
Flat imports and declining exports
Figure 1 (Change in the value of exports and imports of printed matter; in yen) shows
how the value of imports of printed matter in Japan has changed in yen terms, based on trade statistics. While imports of printed matter were on the rise until the first half of the 1990s, they leveled off in the latter half of the 1990s. This is attributed to, as described later, the imports of commercial printed matter from the U.S. declining because of a slump in the Japanese economy, even when imports of printed packaging and business materials from Southeast Asia grew.
Meanwhile, Japan's exports of printed matter were on the decline throughout the 1990s. The decline was particularly sharp in the past five years, as demonstrated with the value of exports for 2002, \42.9 billion, which was equivalent to a 21% fall from the 1997 figure. By product type, exports of books saw a significant drop in both value and share. Given that this sector peaked in 1998, the dip can perhaps be attributed to the fact that the Japan boom that existed overseas during the bubble economy period has subsided.
The export and import trends for printed matter described above are the same in either dollar terms or yen terms.
Since I assume FAGAT member countries are, among other Japanese trade statistics for printing, more interested in exports to Japan, or imports into Japan, from our point of view, I will provide a detailed report on Japan's imports of printed matter next.
An increase in imports of printed packaging
Imports of printed matter show the following trends, when examined through the subdivision of the major products.
(1) Among printed business materials, imports of directories and paper files increased.
This segment has experienced a 10% growth for the past five years. The value of imports for 2002 was \5.50 billion
(2) Among printed packaging products, imports of corrugated cardboard and paper containers increased, indicating a 46% growth for the past five years. The value of imports for 2002 was \6.18 billion.
(3) Among books, paintings/photographs/designs and dictionaries declined, whereas regular books increased.
(4) Among commercial printed matter, imports of postcards, calendars, and advertising material remained flat, while 'Other commercial printed matter' reduced by half in five years. The value of imports for 2002 was \17.7 billion.
'Other commercial printed matter' does not refer to so-called advertising material. The total value of imports for 'Other commercial printed matter' divided by the total quantity of imports gives a unit price of as high as \17,000. Such expensive products must be items like artworks rather than practical materials, and demand for such products is destined to diminish in the slumping Japanese economy. The unit import price for 'paintings/photographs/designs,' a segment which posted a decline in the book sector as mentioned in (3), was also high at \8,500. These products must also be dissimilar to regular books. Since the imports of printed matter change in accordance with the business climate in Japan, the downward trend in recent years reflects the sluggishness of the nation's economy.
Imports from Southeast Asia topped 40% in share
A look at Japan's exports and imports of printed matter by origin reveals that the largest trade partner of Japan is the U.S. in both categories. Regarding imports, the U.S. is ranked among the top three in the value of imports for 25 items out of a total of 32 defined by the detailed division of product type. The second largest is China, positioned among the top three origins of imports for 17 items out of 34. South Korea comes in third, holding the top three positions for 11 items, along with Britain.
However, as Fig. 2 (Value and share of imports from Southeast Asian countries) demonstrates, imports of printed matter from Southeast Asian nations have grown in both value and share over the years to a level that comprises over 40% of Japan's total value of imports in 2002. The Japanese printing market is thus deepening ties with the Southeast Asian printing industry. Figure 3 (Imports of printed matter from Southeast Asian countries for 2002 by country and product type) shows Japan's imports of printed matter from Southeast Asia, divided by country and product type. By country, China was the largest import source of printed matter, followed by Singapore and Korea. Japan's total value of imports of printed matter for 2002 was \18.78 billion. Imports from China accounted for as much as 44.2% of the total value of imports from major Southeast Asian countries for 2002.
Figure 4-1 (Change in the value of imports by country) shows the trend in Japan's imports of printed matter from 1983 through 2002 by origin. A noticeable trend in Figure 4-1 is a rise in imports from China. The value of printed matter imported from China continued to grow at an average annual rate of 24% for the three years from 1999 to 2002. While Korea and China were exporting similar values of products to Japan until the end of the 1980s, since the beginning of the 1990s, China has been increasing exports to Japan at a rate greater than any other nation.
Next, let us look at imports of printed matter from Southeast Asia on a product-type basis (Figure 4-2 Change in the value of imports by product type). Books ranked No. 1 with \14.17 billion imports, followed by printed packaging with \13.39 billion. Combined, these two items accounted for two-thirds of the total value of imports. Imports of printed business materials and calendars, the two categories for which many believe production in Southeast Asia is increasing, were worth no more than \5.2 billion and \1.42 billion, respectively.
China is the origin of 70% of imported packaging
Figure 5 indicates the value of imports from China, Singapore, and Korea by product type. They are the top three import sources for Japan among Southeast Asian countries.
The fact that packaging is the fastest-growing sector among all types of imported printed matter, as mentioned earlier, is mainly attributed to a sharp growth in the value of imports from China since 1999. The total value of packaging products imported from China in 2002 was \9.2 billion, which represented 49% of the total value of printed matter imported from China, and 68.7% of the combined value of packaging material imported from major Southeast Asian countries. While Korea is the second largest import source of packaging after China, the total value of packaging imported from Korea was only one-fifth that of China, \2.1 billion for 2002, as a result of a 35% decline from the previous year.
The largest part of book imports comes from Singapore
For Japan, Singapore was the No. 2 exporter of printed matter after China among Southeast Asian nations. By product type, books comprised the largest part of imports from Singapore and the sector has been continuously growing. Japan's total value of book imports for 2002 was \6.68 billion. After Singapore, China was the second largest origin of books imported, with \3.09 billion.
Note that the book imports mentioned here are not limited to the imports of Japanese publications for which production has been transferred from Japan to Singapore, but also include U.S. and European publications, which are printed in Singapore and exported to Japan.
A striking trend in imports from Korea is the large share held by packaging as well as printed business materials. In the latter sector, imports from China have somewhat slowed down and those from Korea have been on the rise instead.
Current import levels are too low to raise concerns about hollowing out
As discussed at the beginning of the report, the major reason why the Japanese printing industry has begun paying attention to the overseas printing business is the fear that domestic demand for printing may rapidly flow out of Japan to overseas markets so that print buyers can take advantage of low prices available there. This fear has partially become a reality as demonstrated in the trade statistics cited earlier. The degree of outflow of demand from Japan, however, has not reached a level which can cause a hollowing out in the Japanese printing industry.
Figure 6-1 shows the domestic production, the value of imports, and the ratio of the imports value to the domestic production for the printed business materials sector. The domestic production of business materials totaled \390,752 million in 2001 (the blank or white bar area in the bar chart), while the total value of imports amounted to \4,456 million or roughly \4.5 billion, as indicated in the chart. The value of imports, which was equivalent to 1.1% of the domestic production, was so small that it is not recognizable in the bar chart. Similarly, imports of printed paper containers (Figure 6-2) were worth \3,408 million, equal to no more than 0.6% of the total domestic production of \723.7 billion. The value of imports of corrugated cardboard, a growing sector, corresponded to 0.1% of the domestic production for 2001. For bags, the value of imports was equal to 5.4% of the domestic production. Although this percentage figure for bags is significantly higher than those for other products, the actual value was only \1.9 billion.
Note here that there may be printed products that are not included in statistics. For instance, if a toy manufacturer moves production to a country in Southeast Asia and its printing partner follows suit and sets up a factory there, toys will be imported packed in paper containers manufactured locally. In such a case, it would be unlikely that these paper containers are counted as imported printed matter. This example indicates that reviewing trade statistics alone is not sufficient for evaluating the Japanese printing industry's dependence on overseas production. Even when considering such hidden imports of printed matter, judging from Fig. 6, it is not the case, with the exception of the 'Bags' category, that domestic demand for printing is rapidly leaving Japan for overseas courtiers and causing a hollowing out in the Japanese printing industry.
2. Overseas business expansion by Japanese companies
Because of the three reasons listed at the beginning of the report, an increased number of Japanese printing companies are opening factories and offices overseas.
The official statistics on overseas business expansion by Japanese printing firms appear in the government report called 'Results of the Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities' (Fig. 7-1: Overseas operations of Japanese printing companies: number of overseas operation sites and their types of operation). The survey covered companies that were capitalized at more than \30 million and had a workforce of 50 or more. According to the survey results, of the 595 printing firms covered, 29 had overseas subsidiaries and/or affiliates engaged in the printing business. The combined number of these subsidiaries and affiliates amounted to 79. Asia was the most popular destination, accounting for 67.1% of the total overseas establishments, followed by North America (17.8%), Europe (12.7%), and other (2.5%).
Trends in the number of overseas operation sites of Japanese printing firms showed apparent growth in the first half of the 1990s, before the upward trend subsided in the latter half of the 1990s. Meanwhile, the ratio of 100% owned companies to all overseas establishments increased from less than 40% to close to 60%, suggesting overseas business expansion swinging into full gear. A survey by JAGAT, which is more detailed than the above government survey, indicates that there are almost 70 printing firms that are running printing factories or business offices overseas. Overseas operations on a small-scale basis are steadily growing, although they are not counted in statistics.
There is also a rise in the value of exports of products that Japanese printing companies manufacture in their domestic factories, topping \100 billion in 1998. The major export item is electronics products, including shadow masks manufactured by large companies, whereas printed matter as a whole comprises over 60% of exports. Items recently on the rise include cellular phone cases produced using a special printing technique.
Reasons why Japanese companies start overseas operations
There are three reasons why Japanese printing companies set up overseas operations and they are related to the globalization of the Japanese economy and the business climate in Japan.
(1) Overseas operations by major accounts
When the major account of a printing company moves production to an overseas country, a need arises for packaging (packages, labels, instruction manuals, and operation manuals) to be printed near the new factory so that it can ship products together with such packaging materials. Printing in a geographically close location is important because packaging materials need to be produced and delivered just-in-time in accordance with the customer's production schedule so as to be used in the packaging process.
According to the statistics obtained by JAGAT, existing overseas factories and offices set up by Japanese printing companies mainly handle two types of products: one is packaging such as paper containers, flexible packaging, labels and stickers, and the other is documents such as manuals that are supplied with customers' products. This suggests that, at least so far, a common pattern for Japanese printing companies to start overseas operations is 'building an overseas factory in response to a major account's overseas transfer of production, in order to avoid loss of orders from that account.' Figure 7-2 shows a breakdown of sales by overseas establishments of Japanese printing companies as published in the 'Results of the Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities.' Local sales represented the largest part, followed by sales to third countries, while sales to Japan comprised only less than 10%. Although the figure indicates a significant increase in sales to Japan for the last three years, sales statistics for the subsequent years are, unfortunately, not contained in the government report.
For a printing company whose sales are heavily reliant on orders from a large account, there is no other choice but to set up operations overseas when the customer decides to move production sites overseas. This is partly because some customers even ask their print suppliers to go abroad along with them, and more importantly, printers themselves have to avoid losing a large part of their sales. Printing companies that can take such actions are actually limited to large-scale companies, and other smaller companies often end up losing all print jobs associated with the customer who moves production overseas.
The transfer of production facilities overseas by a large manufacturer can have a direct and indirect impact on the local printing market. For small- and medium-sized printers, the indirect impact, which causes a slowdown in local business and eventually results in a decline in overall demand for printing, is more serious than the direct impact as the loss of print orders from an important account. Some of the recent examples are Hitachi and Seiko Epson, both of which have moved production overseas. Indirect impacts of such events never show in trade statistics.
(2) Meeting price reduction requests from customers
Customer pressure to reduce prices is the reason why medium-sized printing firms are increasingly considering overseas production and alliance with overseas companies. Because of the economic slump in Japan and overcapacity in the printing industry, printing prices in Japan have reduced 20% in the last seven to eight years. During this period, Japanese printing companies have significantly streamlined their workflows by introducing state-of-the-art presses, eight-color sheetfed presses, or CTP systems. Physical productivity per operator in Japanese print shops (except for the prepress division) has improved 50% in the past 10 years.
With continued deflation, however, demands for price reduction from customers are unlikely to wane any time soon. The next phase of streamlining, which involves Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) based on Job Definition Formats (JDF), will take more than five years to spread across the industry. One of the feasible options left for printing companies who are faced with demands for even lower prices is moving to areas where production costs are cheaper.
Since Japanese people are now seeing a growing number and variety of inexpensive imports available, print buyers are also beginning to assume that printed matter may be produced at lower cost overseas. Some of them are already placing orders to overseas printers either directly or through domestic printers. This is the primary reason why medium-sized printing firms have recently been showing interest in the idea of printing overseas.
(3) Aiming at business expansion in areas where the market has room for expansion
In most cases, the reason for Japanese printing companies to set up operations in Southeast Asia has been either (1) or (2), described above. Only a minimal number of companies have advanced there to pursue business expansion in a potential growth market. Regardless of the initial reason, however, it would be a natural course of action for a company, as long as it is a profit-making organization, to expand business if there is growth in local demand and meeting the demand can potentially bring profits to the company.
A number of printers have started operations overseas for the objective of leveraging cost-competitive local labor for labor-incentive print production. They are now changing the original strategy and more aggressively seeking business expansion in accordance with growth in the local markets. In the meantime, printing companies, which have advanced into foreign countries together with their major customers, are realizing that orders from these Japanese-affiliated companies alone are not sufficient for them to achieve profitability, and are facing a need to seek local demand. The result is a business development pattern in which Japanese printing firms overseas put the business on track through dealings with local Japanese subsidiaries before further penetrating into the local market. A similar approach is also taken by Japanese printers that have moved into foreign countries in pursuit of expanding business in untapped overseas markets. They usually depend on demand from local Japanese-affiliated establishments until a solid business base is built, and then launch efforts to capture the local demand.
For printing companies in Japan, a country where demand for printing has become saturated and the population is expected to decline, moving into overseas countries can open the door to new business opportunities, whatever the original intention is.
◆