With the emergence of a variety of electronic media that may lead us to a paperless society, we cannot discuss the future of the printing industry without thinking about the future of paper. How will the role of paper, which has always been around us like air, and publications, which have been supporting our civilization and culture to date, be transformed in the coming years? Paper is also increasingly related to environmental issues such as garbage and natural resources.

In an effort to provide foresight for paper through discussions of experts closely involved with the medium and to seek for the future direction of the industry, a symposium titled 'What will happen to paper by 2050?'(hosted by JAGAT and sponsored by the Japan Technical Association of Pulp and Paper Industry) was held at Hatsumei-kaikan on July 25. With a view to finding the right course for their business, some 200 people gathered to attend the event consisting of the keynote speech and subsequent two parts of panel discussions.

During the keynote speech, Dr. Takayuki Okayama, Associate Professor, Lab. of Recycled Resources Science Faculty of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology gave a basic outline of paper, describing it's consumption, history, today's paper recycling activities and problems, and preserving qualities of paper. He pointed out that the future of paper largely depended on our environmental approaches such as recycling as well as on how we secure resources for paper.

Speeches were also given by Mr. Kenya Hara, a graphic designer who produced the Takeo Paper Show, and Mr. Hidetaka Taneda, Manager of R&D Planning Department, NipponPaper Industries Co., Ltd.. Following this, the three speakers held a panel discussion chaired by Mr. Okayama on the subject 'From the viewpoints of environment, society, and culture.' In Part 2, a panel discussion of four panelists exchanged views about the theme 'From the viewpoints of the industry and business.' Panel discussion part 1:The following is the panel discussion held in Part 1.

● Are paper and electronic media catching up with each other?

Okayama: I would like to start with 'paper and electronic media in the context of their relations with people.' Mr. Hara, Let me ask you about the hurdle to electronic books you have mentioned. Could you tell us what kind of hurdle it is and what the advantage of paper is?
Hara: It is true that electronic media have the overwhelming advantage over paper in accuracy and recordability. But, as is often discussed, what if paper had been invented after the computer had been invented? The invention of paper could have been taken as an epoch-making event that brought about a great convenience, because, thanks to paper, what people would previously have been able to see only through monitors could be taken out and carried around, or even folded into a small pieces to fit in a pocket. In this sense, paper offers us vast diversity. In order for electronic media to outstrip paper, there must be interfaces developed as diverse as paper by examining each feature of paper.
Another important point is that people usually think that electronic media are not easy to see. Studies on how huge volumes of information flow through all environments have yet to progress and remain at the stage of arguing about possibilities and potentialities. These two points are summarized in electronic media's physical disadvantage against paper's diversity as a medium and a delay in studying content presentation such as images. Development in these two areas is key for electronic media to supersede paper.
Okayama: Mr. Taneda, you said 'paper and electronic media are rivals.' Would you explain to us what you meant?
Taneda: A clear advantage of electronic media is that it permits you to personally send out information free from the responsibilities that accompany mass media. Apart from such difference in social roles, from the technical point of view, most of today's electronic media seem to be developed to imitate the established technologies of paper. I doubt if this is the right course of development for electronic media.
There is another issue that I often note while I am viewing Web pages: what makes electronic media definitely different from paper is their availability of color. For example, electronic books offer color views. On the other hand, most paper material we handle everyday in our office such as copied paper is black and white. There is a big difference. In this sense, I think that we are still at a stage where paper and electronic media are trying to catch up with each other.

●New media to open possibilities of paper

Okayama: Every time a new medium such as the TV and the computer appear, people always say that paper will disappear. On the contrary, paper has not only survived, but has also grown in consumption, because we cannot help printing out what we see on our monitor screen and we naturally feel familiar with paper as the interface.
Now we would like to think forward to2050. Before discussing if paper will survive through 2050, we should be aware that a younger generation would be leading society by then. Do you think the next generation will remain familiar with paper?
Hara: If a generation grows up having no contact with paper then they will find this medium unfamiliar.
I have long believed, however, that human beings like paper. It is not that people like paper simply because it carries information for them, there must be something more profound. For instance, anybody would feel it is lovely the moment his or her finger tip touches Japanese paper, a wonderful traditional product. The magic works like this: while processing natural materials into paper using human wisdom, graces that are contained within natural materials for interacting with humans are woven into paper and they are released when touched as the joy of embracing a lovely thing. This would bring similar joy even to the people who would have grown up without any contact with paper.
Consequently, new media would reveal untapped capabilities of paper. Paper has been treated as a carrier of information, driven hard as if it were a cart heavily loaded. Once people begin noticing the possibilities of paper as a material, the future of paper will become wide open.
Taneda: One characteristic of paper is that it is 'physical.' As human beings must take in physical things such as food to live, we may instinctively feel familiar with or the need for a physical presence.
Information is invisible yet it becomes visible when shown on paper. Rather than just listening to information, we would feel relieved when given sheaves of paper full of information. For example, it is nice just keeping books you have bought close to you even before reading them. This sense of relief is seen commonly among human beings, it probably stems from instinct. This is why I believe that paper will still exist as something associated with information even in an era of computer-oriented generations.

Okayama: What do you think is the advantage of paper as a physical entity and, in the same context, what kind of additional properties would make paper more attractive?
Hara: The most important aspect of paper is that it is a material to form our environments. At the same time, paper can carry information, which makes paper more interesting. On the other hand, a monitor is nothing more than a monitor and will not either form or define our environments. I believe paper has as high a potential as computer-oriented media development.
A virtual world exists in parallel with the physical world, and these two parallel worlds will continue to evolve, interacting with each other for a time. The situation is the same in the world of architects. Today, when outflow of information itself is becoming a part of urbanism, how to control information flows can affect how the city looks. Future urbanism will be built on networks. Architects are influenced by such urbanism created in the virtual world and altering the appearance of actual buildings. In this sense, physical architecture, too, is becoming increasingly interesting. Recently, an increasing number of thick books are being published throughout the world. The volume of information created by individuals, or the number of pages in terms of books, is now growing enormously. Why is this? The desire to share information means that it cannot remain only in the virtual world and seeks a physical form. The result is more and thicker books in bookstores.

●How to solve the resources problem

Okayama: From the viewpoint of paper manufacturing, environmental and resource problems will inevitably become the center of attention in the future. Mr. Taneda, you have already mentioned in your speech issues about life cycle assessment such as carbon dioxide emissions and energy. What resources should we consider for paper production?
Taneda:　People have been saying that the raw materials of paper are recyclable. Considering that human beings cannot do without materials and energy and that fossil fuel may become unavailable as source of these in the future, we will have to use natural energy such as solar energy. The major disadvantage of natural energy is its low energy density and interrupted availability such as at night. Managing with this kind of energy requires technologies and systems to store it.
This means that forests, which can effectively absorb and store solar energy, will play an increasingly important role in the future. Regarding storage, we must also think about how to make full use of what is stored. For example, if we could successfully develop a system in which woods are first processed into paper and then eventually used as an energy source, it would free us forever from concerns about resources and energy, which are demerits of life dependent on physical things.
Waste paper collection and recycling ratios are significantly high in Japan. So, when we look at 50 years ahead, it seems to be an important approach that Japan as a model sets up a viable collection and recycling system and rolls it out elsewhere in the world. At present, the system for collecting paper as a recyclable material is working relatively well, but that for collecting paper to reuse as energy is yet to be established. Since this issue is also linked to garbage problems, the paper industry and the rest of society should discuss how to create and promote such a system.

Okayama:When countries with a large population such as China and India develop their economy in the future, their consumption of paper will certainly rise. What impact will the growth of developing nations have on resources and the environment in the period through 2050?
Taneda:There seems to be no doubt that paper consumption will increase in countries such as India and China. However, people in these countries do not consume much paper right now. When people who have not been familiar with a medium such as newspaper are given paper media and electronic media at the same time, which type of media will they choose? This is a question that requires both individual and social approaches.
In the social approach, we know that certain infrastructure must be established to use paper as an information medium. Paper mills, printing factories and a transportation system to distribute printed media throughout the country are also needed.
Considering electronic media, when people have devices such as wireless mobile phones, building infrastructure to distribute information to individuals is not likely to cost society as much. Which type of media will be chosen? In a different aspect, if wood resources as the raw material of paper keep diminishing, paper prices will rise and this will probably lead to a balance. I do not think that China and India will increase their paper demand at the same pace as Japan and the U.S.

●What if there were no paper?

Okayama: If paper disappeared from our world, what do you think society would be like?
Hara: Paper is something that accepts a person's physicality through letting him or her write letters on it with a pen. Language and letters take forms when they are actually written down by somebody. Paper as part of our environment has been always receptive to human beings, who are inevitably and fatally given physical forms. If paper were all replaced by keyboards, we would not know how to deal with our physicality.
Taneda: If it were not for paper, paper companies would certainly lose business, which would be a serious problem to me (laughs). One feature of paper is its low price. When we try to preserve something, it should not be an expensive. The property of paper can be a driving force to inspire people to preserve things. Therefore, if we had to do without paper, such cultural activities would be forced to shrink.

●Paper continues to evolve

Okayama: In the period through 2050, there may not be a major change to paper, while I am sure that there will be a variety of developments in electronic media. Would you like to make an additional remark to end the session?
Hara: I would say paper would evolve rather than survive. Changes in electronic media and changes in the physical world of paper will progress in parallel. Therefore, it will not be that one of them stops while the other advances, but their evolution will have mutual influence, opening up new opportunities for paper. It must not be forgotten that new media will bring about this change as they stimulate the existing media.
Taneda: The study of paper must continue. Paper remains, since it brings its own unique benefit to people. This fact may not be widely recognized yet when we are holding a symposium like this. I feel the need to more deeply pursue what makes paper so outstanding and what could replace paper. Okayama: I have been looking at paper from the viewpoint of its survival. But now I would rather say in conclusion that paper has the potential for further evolution like Mr. Hara says.

2004/07/26 00:00:00